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Dec 08 2014

Cassidy Turley November 2014 U.S. Macro Forecast Report Download | The Expansion is Here


From Cassidy Turley:

cassidyturleymacro1114The U.S. economy is accelerating and the property markets are beginning to resemble pre-recession form. Real GDP is on track to come in just above 2% for 2014 (we estimate 2.3%), but the real underlying growth rate—absent the weather-induced drop in the first quarter of the year—is closer to 4%. Demand for goods and services, as measured by final sales of domestic product, continues to increase. So,too, has the need for businesses to hire additional workers. Job growth has been averaging nearly 230,000 net new payrolls per month this year, a 15-year high, with 93% of those new jobs considered full-time employment. Job openings, which typically lead job creation by six to nine months, are at their highest level since the tail-end of the dotcom boom in 2000. Monthly fluctuations aside, job gains will generally remain above 200,000 well into the foreseeable future. The unemployment rate in October was 5.8%, 150 bps lower than just 12 months ago. We’ve also seen labor force growth occurring at the same time, so the improvement in the unemployment rate can no longer be called a statistical mirage.

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