Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2014 reflects the views of over 1,000 individuals who completed surveys or were interviewed as a part of the research process for this report. The views expressed herein, including all comments appearing in quotes, are obtained exclusively from these surveys and interviews and do not express the opinions of either PwC or ULI. Interviewees and survey participants represent a wide range of industry experts, including investors, fund managers, developers, property companies, lenders, brokers, advisers, and consultants. ULI and PwC researchers personally interviewed more than 377 individuals and survey responses were received from over 694 individuals.
Topics covered include:
– Key Drivers for 2014
– Capital flows and equity sources
– Markets to watch
– Property type outlook for industrial, hotels, apartments, retail, office, housing
– Emerging trends in Canada & Latin America
“With the economy in a position where the tailwinds are now stronger than the prevailing headwinds, 2014 should be a year when we see real estate fundamentals improve in sectors beyond the already very healthy multifamily sector—and in a number of markets—to a point where we could see above inflation rate rental growth,” says a fund manager. According to Emerging Trends 2014 interviewees, the tailwinds include “good if not great” job growth—in industries that are, by no small coincidence, magnets for commercial real estate investment (energy, technology, health care and biological research, and, to some extent, education and financial services)—solid corporate profits, and a recovery in the housing market. These tailwinds are expected to trump the headwinds, which include a “stubbornly high” unemployment rate, uncertainty over government regulation and fiscal policy, and concern about the rising cost of debt capital.
The expected breadth of the recovery is illustrated by the view of Emerging Trends survey respondents toward the outlook for real estate business prospects. Prospects for almost all types of real estate businesses were rated more optimistically for 2014 than in last year’s survey for 2013. The improvement in business outlook was most significant for homebuilders, for whom prospects are not only expected to be significantly better than last year but whose prospects have more than doubled in the past two years. As a result, homebuilders have moved from the weakest real estate businesses in 2012 to one of the strongest in 2014. Business prospects for commercial bank real estate lenders and commercial mortgage–backed securities (CMBS) lenders and issuers also improved noticeably.